Seamless steel pipe prices still have upside room in May, price growth will become rational

Driven by the price rally during the traditional peak season of March and April, seamless steel pipe prices climbed rapidly.As of press time, prices have risen by roughly 500 yuan compared with early April.

However, side effects of sharp price surges are inevitable.Current prices exceed market psychological expectations.Once signs of correction emerge, trading volume shrinks rapidly.This is the primary factor pushing seamless steel pipe prices into a downward channel at the end of the month.

Will seamless steel pipe prices keep soaring or turn downward in the approaching May?Brief analysis is as follows.

1. Demand sideEconomic data improved in the first quarter.Real estate investment growth picked up noticeably in the first three months.Some analysts believe that if housing sales maintain rapid growth supported by a low base after April, real estate investment growth may rebound to 8%-10%.

In addition, infrastructure investment growth jumped sharply in March, showing stronger-than-expected pro-growth policy support.With a low statistical base after April and concentrated construction of reserve projects, infrastructure investment is likely to maintain high growth of around 20% for a period.

Demand will keep releasing in the short term and offer support to seamless steel pipe prices in May.Terminal consumption still has room to recover and is expected to improve substantially in May.

2. Supply & capacity sideData from the National Bureau of Statistics shows China’s crude steel output reached 70.65 million tons in March 2026, up 2.9% year-on-year.The average daily crude steel output stood at 2.279 million tons, rising 12.94% month-on-month.

The daily output level remains relatively high historically, close to the record daily output of 2.298 million tons hit in 2026.

The Tangshan government plans to cut production by 50% at selected steel mills ahead of the International Horticultural Expo.Nevertheless, stimulated by sharply improved profits, environmentally compliant manufacturers will boost output.Total capacity may not decline, and supply-demand tensions will persist.

3. Raw material sideCurrent steel billet port inventories stand below 200,000 tons, hitting historical lows.Meanwhile, blast furnace operating rates remain restrained.Tight spot supply of steel billets is unlikely to ease in the short run.

After mild corrections, steel billet prices are expected to fluctuate upward again.Following market rules, strip steel and pipe prices will tend to move stronger supported by costs.Raw material costs will underpin finished steel products in early May, and a bottoming rebound is highly probable.

In summary, opposing forces of production cuts and output expansion act on the market.With relatively stable consumption demand, market sentiment can shift rapidly amid high prices and high profits, affected by frequent volatility in steel futures and billet prices.

The overall positive market trend remains intact.It is estimated that the correction range for seamless steel pipe prices will be limited, while volatility of raw materials such as steel billets may intensify.

The strong market foundation has not been broken.After a short-term adjustment, seamless steel pipe prices still have room to rise in May, yet future gains will return to a rational range.

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